49ers from Worst to First

If I’m the general manager of the Niners this is an example roster that I would compile in the off season to turn the franchise around in one year rather than wait five years.

On paper this is a top 5 championship caliber defense paired with a productive offense much like the 2015 Denver Broncos and maybe a better offense.

 

 

 

 

The Defense should hold most teams to 17 points or less per game with the Offense putting up 24 points or more per game; this spells wins.

Most of these free agents will be reluctant to come to the Niners however if they see that others will be making the move to the Niners it will be much easier to entice all of them to come aboard..

You want a championship?  Championships cost money.

 

How to Make it Happen

Cap Space is at $83.5 million.

Cut the following players:

QB  Kaepernick which adds another $16.9 million to the Cap.

LB  Brooks which adds another $5.3 million to the Cap.

S   Reid which adds another $5.6 million to the Cap.

CB  Brock which adds another $3.5 million to the Cap.

WR  Ellington which adds another $.8 million to the Cap.

CB  Johnson  which adds another $.7 million to the Cap.

RT  Brown   which adds another $.7 million to the Cap.

S   Bathea    which adds another $5.75 million to the Cap.

That’s $39.25 million added to the Cap bringing the total to $122.75 million.

I trade Aaron Lynch to the Eagles for QB Chase Daniel.  Daniel is a pro who learned behind one the games best in Drew Brees.  The only reason he has not been given a chance to prove himself as a starter is because he is only 6ft. tall.  Russell Wilson is only 5′ 11″ and a successful NFL QB and for that matter so is Drew Brees.

If you stick Daniel on the 2015 Broncos replacing Peyton Manning they still win the Super Bowl.  Eagles’ coach Pederson who brought Daniel to Philly from Kansas City considers Daniel a ‘coach on the field.  It’s time that someone give Daniel a shot at being the starting QB.  Pederson would not deny him the opportunity.

$8 mil. to Daniel reduces the Cap to $114.75.  $.6 mil added to the Cap for Lynch departure brings it to $115.35  Resign Christian Ponder or Shaun Hill to back up Daniel at QB.

Minus $1.35 mil. reduces the Cap to $114

This frees up the Niners to draft the best player available at #2 in the draft for there is not one QB in this year’s draft worth taking a risk on in the first round.

Would you rather have Blake Bortles or Khalil Mack to improve your team?

Would you rather have Blake Bortles or Patrick Willis to improve your team?

Bortles was taken #3 and Mack #5 in the same draft.  This year it is both Kizer and Trubisky at QB representing Bortles and Reuben Foster representing Mack.  The worst thing you could do now as a franchise is to panic by selecting a mediocre QB with a top pick in the draft when you can obtain a perennial pro-bowler.

I trade down in the draft to gain some picks and still get Foster.

Daniel will cost $8 million per year for 2017 and 2018.  Two years for Daniel to prove himself.  With Daniel on board I need to give him a proven wide out to pitch the ball to.  I go after Alshon Jeffery who instantly makes Smith and Kerley better.

Minus 18 mil. to Jeffery brings the cap down to $96 mil.

I sign J.C. tretter to stabilize the center position for $5 mil/per.  Cap now at $91 mil.  Pick up another serviceable RT, Riley Reiff, for $2 to $3 mil.  Cap now at $88 mil.

We now have a solid QB and a Pro-Bowl receiver and a stabilized O-Line.

Pick up DE edge rusher Chandler Jones for $18 mil. per year.  Have to put pressure on opposing QBs.  So in essence Jones represents Jonathan Allen at the 2nd pick which I gave up.  I am now pairing a pro-bowl end with pro-bowl ILB Foster.  Cap now at $70

Bring in two CBs to beef up the secondary:

CB Prince Amukamara at $7 mil. per year and

CB Trumaine Johnson at $14 mil per year.

Cap now at $49 mil.

Now make a pitch to All-Pro S Eric Berry for another $12 mil per year and bring his teammate DT Dontari Poe along for the ride at $13 mil per year.  That leaves $24 mil. for draft picks; to sign a kicker and obtain other needed free agents.  Perhaps I go after another top tier offensive lineman.

Somebody will definitely want to move up to the 2nd pick in the draft to obtain DE Jonathan Allen.  By trading down a few spots in the first round I gain some extra picks and package them together to move up and ensure picking T.J. WattHenderson is this year’s Jalen Richard and could be every bit as effective as a pro as Christian McCaffrey as a change of pace runner while catching passes out of the backfield.  Select Webb in the 5th round or later.  He has the same tools of Kizer and Trubisky just not the polish.  Webb just needs two to three years of grooming.  If Webb is not available then pick up another cheap FA QB and go after one of top QBs in the 2018 draft; next year’s Derek Carr.  If Daniels falters at least he grooms Webb.  If Webb is not the answer then draft a better QB in next years draft as there will be many more available than this year’s.  Taylor Moton will produce more on the field than several O-Lineman selected before him.

Simply put drafting a QB in the first round out of need more often than not does not work out:

Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, EJ Manuel were recent top 16 draft picks and not one has worked out as a franchise QB.

There is the mixed bag of Johnny Manziel, Robert Griffin lll, Brandon Weeden and Blake Bortles.

Other notable 1st round flame outs include:

Tim Couch, JaMarcus Russell, Joey Harrington, J.P. Lossman, Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, Kyle Boller, Vince Young, and Byron Leftwich.  Can you honestly say that Kizer or Trubisky look better than the above did at draft time?

After the 2017 season I bring in Trevor Harris from the Canadian Football League for tryout.  Initially I use Henderson as my returner but I look for another one in the draft to complement that role.

I’m not the GM and I don’t know if Jed York is willing to spend the money but like I said before championships cost money and if York is willing to spend the money this is what I would do if I were the GM or something close to it.

[02/05/17 Update:   True the Patriots came back from a 25 point deficit with 8:35 left in the 3rd quarter of Super Bowl LI.  And I would say Brady deserves the MVP he received.  However Brady does not win the game unless the Patriots’ defense shuts down the Falcons’ offense.  Conversely the Falcons defense could not stop Brady in the 2nd half despite a 25 point lead.  Patriots’ defense won the game just as much as Brady.

Offense is needed but Defense wins championships.

Kaepernick to Broncos for 1st Round Draft Pick

Denver is seeking to trade for San Francisco 49er quarterback Colin Kaepernick in exchange for a 4th round pick in the draft, hence Denver is stating that a starting quarterback in worth a 4th round pick. On its face that is an unfair deal.

CP 2A starting QB in the NFL is worth at minimum a high 3rd round pick and a good one is worth a high 2nd round pick.  Given that Denver’s draft picks are coming at the bottom end of each round their attempt to fleece the Niners is even more egregious.

The caveat is whether Kaepernick can recapture the skills he displayed three to four years ago in leading the Niners to a Super Bowl and an NFC championship game.  If Kaepernick remains the battered back up with the Broncos as he was last season then yes a 4th round pick is what he is worth; however if he starts a majority of games and leads the Broncos deep into the playoffs then he is worth much, much more.

Denver has no options to acquire a top tier QB in the draft or free agency.  There is a simple solution to this complex problem.

If I am the GM of Denver I ask myself:

Is a 2nd round pick worth a starting QB that pushes my team deep into the playoffs?

Answer: Yes.

Is a 1st round pick worth another Super Bowl win, back to back no less?

Answer: Yes.

Here is the deal that I make which is a win-win for the Niners and the Broncos:

The Niners send Kaepernick to the Broncos for the Broncos’ 2016 4th round draft pick.  If Kaepernick plays 51% of the snaps at QB over the course of the 2016/17 regular season and the Broncos make the playoffs the Broncos will send the Niners their 2017 2nd round draft pick and the Niners will send back Denver’s 2016 4th round pick as a 4th or 5th round 2017 pick whichever one is closer to the 136th overall pick.

Should Denver win the 2017 Super Bowl with Kaepernick as the starting QB while also fulfilling the former regular season requirements Denver will send the Niners their 2017 1st round pick and again the Niners will send back a 4th or 5th round pick.

That is a fair trade for both teams.  And then again if Kaepernick wanted to stay with SF this entire adventure would be mute.