Denver is seeking to trade for San Francisco 49er quarterback Colin Kaepernick in exchange for a 4th round pick in the draft, hence Denver is stating that a starting quarterback in worth a 4th round pick. On its face that is an unfair deal.
A starting QB in the NFL is worth at minimum a high 3rd round pick and a good one is worth a high 2nd round pick. Given that Denver’s draft picks are coming at the bottom end of each round their attempt to fleece the Niners is even more egregious.
The caveat is whether Kaepernick can recapture the skills he displayed three to four years ago in leading the Niners to a Super Bowl and an NFC championship game. If Kaepernick remains the battered back up with the Broncos as he was last season then yes a 4th round pick is what he is worth; however if he starts a majority of games and leads the Broncos deep into the playoffs then he is worth much, much more.
Denver has no options to acquire a top tier QB in the draft or free agency. There is a simple solution to this complex problem.
If I am the GM of Denver I ask myself:
Is a 2nd round pick worth a starting QB that pushes my team deep into the playoffs?
Is a 1st round pick worth another Super Bowl win, back to back no less?
Here is the deal that I make which is a win-win for the Niners and the Broncos:
The Niners send Kaepernick to the Broncos for the Broncos’ 2016 4th round draft pick. If Kaepernick plays 51% of the snaps at QB over the course of the 2016/17 regular season and the Broncos make the playoffs the Broncos will send the Niners their 2017 2nd round draft pick and the Niners will send back Denver’s 2016 4th round pick as a 4th or 5th round 2017 pick whichever one is closer to the 136th overall pick.
Should Denver win the 2017 Super Bowl with Kaepernick as the starting QB while also fulfilling the former regular season requirements Denver will send the Niners their 2017 1st round pick and again the Niners will send back a 4th or 5th round pick.
That is a fair trade for both teams. And then again if Kaepernick wanted to stay with SF this entire adventure would be mute.